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Cake day: March 14th, 2025

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  • Lets pause for a moment and consider how dumb this situation makes Trump look on the world stage. He’s picks a fight with the entire world over tariffs, and obnoxiously demands that everyone comply with his wishes under the pain of losing trade. Then, a court rules that he never had the power to issue the tariffs in the first instance and voids them. The “deals” he’s supposedly struck now are worthless, and the countries that held out and didn’t bend to Trump’s whim have won. The only country harmed by the tariffs is the United States. It’s like starting a fight by punching yourself in the face.


  • They’re not in limbo per se, as the court issued a summary judgment to plaintiffs and struck the tariffs down. There are no tariffs now. They were illegal. To get them reinstated, Trump has to appeal, the court has to grant review (which only takes one justice, so review will almost certainly be granted), and then has to reverse the ruling. While the tariffs could be reinstated, I think it’s more likely than not that they won’t.

    However, your point about economic stability is well taken. I’ll add to your point that the tariffs have already greatly harmed the U.S. by turning much of the world against us. They’ve forced other countries to look for alternative suppliers, and it is unlikely that they will come back, tariffs or not. They have also triggered boycotts of U.S. products.


  • Ordinarily, an order from this court would be appealed to the appellate court for the federal circuit, but I’m sure the administration will attempt to leapfrog this and try to immediately appeal to the Supreme Court. Since you only need one justice to grant cert, they’ll probably accept it. The real question is whether they’ll roll over for Trump. I can see Barrett and Roberts joining the liberal wing in upholding the court’s order striking down the tariffs, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.







  • One good explanation is that Trump is using the tariffs to profit.

    • Step 1: Announce a massive tariff, causing the markets to plummet.

    • Step 2: With stock prices down, Trump and his minions scoop up cheap stocks.

    • Step 3: Announce a temporary roll-back of the tariffs, causing the markets to rally.

    • Step 4: Trump and his minions sell stocks and take their profits.

    • Step 5: Rinse, repeat.

    An alternative explanation is that Trump has poor impulse control and has a deep-seated need for attention, so he throws out massive numbers for tariffs. Then, stocks plummet and bond yields rise, raising grave concerns about the financial stability of the U.S… Anyone in his administration with any inkling about economics panic, warn him of the potential for financial collapse and the end of his regime. Fearing for his own future, he then walks back the tariffs in an effort to attempt to mitigate the harm he has caused.

    Honestly, I don’t know which it is, but what I do know is that this tariff merry-go-round is not sustainable, and eventually the U.S. will lose all credibility and the money pulsing through our markets will seek saner grounds elsewhere.