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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • I’ve taken to distinguishing between science(v), the method and science(n), the body of models and data. Science(v) is imperfect, but basically as close as we can get to objective truth. Science(n) can often stress conclusions further than their rigor justifies, but eventually regresses to the mean for the most part.

    You can’t really question science(v) beyond its intrinsic epistemology, and no other method can really do any better. You can often question science(n), heck I can’t count the number of times “consensus” flip-flopped on red wine, coffee, fat, and so on. But eventually science(v) does bring science(n) to a stable empirical baseline.









  • Not saying there aren’t a lot of racists, but there are also many very dumb people. I’ve met enough of the general population to feel fairly certain that there are a non-zero number of Trump supporters who are otherwise tolerant people. They simply don’t think about it.

    You’d be surprised by the proportion of the population which spends virtually no time on self-reflection. They just kinda bumble forward through life. Most of these people inherit their political affiliation like a sports team, from their environment. They’re not bad people, they just don’t think too hard.




  • There’s a sticking point that no one’s been able to explain to me:

    If you’re in the minority, revolution is against the democratic will of the people.

    If you’re in the majority, you have the votes to actually accomplish something with reform. It’s not like we live in a monarchy, reform is possible under our system.

    If reform isn’t working to bring about your goals, either your goals aren’t popular enough, or they are popular but the people lack the will and organization to vote for them.

    If the people lack the will and organization to vote effectively, they certainly lack the will and organization to topple the government.

    My area of expertise is managing complex systems and change implementation. I sincerely don’t understand how revolution is supposed to work where reform doesn’t. No one has been able to give me an answer that doesn’t bill down to idealistic hope. How is this revolution supposed to be implemented, and why can’t we build the foundation for revolution while simultaneously using the tools we have for reform? Wouldn’t widespread support for reform be the best possible proof of consensus?





  • A great article with some excellent points:

    Those who defend strategies, practices, and rituals in an identitarian way even if they don’t lead to concrete impact are part of the problem, regardless of the seniority of the traditions and identities they embody. Losing for decades, martyring oneself for nothing, having moral superiority should not be a source of authority on how politics should be conducted, because it does not generate competence on how to achieve political victories.

    [S]pontaneism must be fought in every way possible. First in its most obvious form, that is, the idea that if there is a widespread complaint in society, sooner or later this will lead to action which in turn will lead to change. Second, in its more insidious form, that is, the idea that understanding a political phenomenon, a problem, or an issue, is enough to achieve a solution.

    Nothing is too “right-wing.” Nothing is “a thing for capitalists.” The end justifies the means. To be ineffective is a form of privilege. Being picky when choosing allies, being maximalists, and being purists is the luxury of those who engage in politics because of their beliefs rather than out of necessity.