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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • Trump lawyers claim ICE agents “are facing incessant violent resistance on the streets of Illinois …"

    It is no surprise that eyewitness accounts largely dispute these claims, often with video evidence.

    So while there are a lot of problems with our ubiquitous surveillance state, the fact that virtually every citizen has an independant surveillance device in their pocket may be the key thing that pulls us out of authoritarianism.

    What the Trump administration is doing is no different than what other authoritarian regimes did: lie about their opposition, then use those lies as an excuse to consolidate power. Everyone knew they were lying, but nobody could prove it. But here, we not only have the technology to prove them wrong, but a court system which still has some measure of independence and, in many cases, will not ignore definitive proof.

    Will it be enough? That’s still an open question. I can’t say for sure. In the meantime, the best hope for Democracy in America would be if the actuarial tables finally catch up with the man.












  • I think AOC will make a perfect Presidential candidate, in 2040 or 2048 after a few terms in the Senate. She will still be “young” by Presidential standards. Maybe by then many of the misogynists will have died off.

    Don’t get me wrong: she would make an extremely good candidate in 2028 too. But I don’t think she has a chance of winning in the current climate. Too many people won’t vote for a woman right now, but are self-aware enough to know they can’t admit it anymore, so will come up with bullshit reasons why they can’t do it.

    If she is on my ballot she is getting my vote, full stop. But I want to keep her for NY for a while longer.


  • There may be a way to make lemonade out of these lemons. While there are 3 appropriations bills bundled into this package, most of the rest of the appropriations would be on a continuing resolution until the end of the year, which isn’t really a very long time. So, absent some sort of breakthrough with the House, we will be in this same position in January.

    If Republicans renege on the December vote, then Democrats can go back to them and say “No, we mean it this time, put back the ACA subsidies or we dont agree to kick the can further. We trusted you once and you lied.”

    Meanwhile, in this bill there are explicit guarantees for SNAP funding and protections for federal workers during the shutdown. Yes, those things were already law, but it reinforces things if Trump signs a bill in November and then ignores it in January. Those are the things that made this shutdown especially painful, and the current bill’s passage will limit the pain Trump can inflict.

    Basically, I don’t buy into the narrative that Democrats got nothing in exchange. It seems like they got a lot of incremental things, that will help give them leverage when Republicans decide to screw them. In the meantime, Federal workers get back pay to prepare for the next one.





  • Yeah yeah, I know. Trading their votes for the promise of a vote in the future is kinda dumb. But then, there is this nugget buried here:

    There is also a negotiation to reinstate all of the federal workers Trump laid off during the shutdown, the report adds.

    That might just be worth it, because it would be Congress passing something that puts direct constraints on what the President can do, and daring him to veto it.

    Edited to add: don’t sleep on the 3 spending bills that are being negotiated too. This effort looks like a continuing resolution that extends most agencies through the end of the year, but those 3 bills constitute full appropriations for agriculture, military construction and legislative agencies. And it looks like Democrats may have won back some funding for programs that the House budget gutted. This is all from the NYT, if I happen to find a non-paywall link I’ll add it