“S’iomadh Rid” (“The Dhith Om / Clamor A Ni Mi”) sung by Rhiannon Giddens

Yeah, this post is misleading as he just gave the commencement address this year - yesterday in fact. Already received quite a bit of coverage and some outlets have not only articles but the full transcript: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-commencement-speech-full-transcript-2067064

Anyone not knowing that might see this and be confused as the date isn’t noted in the post.

Because he doesn’t actually believe any of this, it’s all performative. It’s all about creating a certain narrative that they can then exploit to keep the grift going.

“According to the French bioethics law, DNA testing is only allowed for medical, scientific or judicial purposes. The main concern is that paternity tests and medical DNA tests shouldn’t be done without supervision. But the ban also extends to genealogical DNA tests.”

https://www.myfrenchroots.com/dna-testing-in-france/

From my own experience, my wife has several lines that I know originated in France (either directly or through early Quebec settlers) from verified records and nothing shows up in her Ancestry results. Also, the ethnicity reports in general might as well be labeled for “entertainment purposes only” - they are not consistent from revision to revision, and are often flat out wrong when matched against hundreds of years of documentation. Theoretically they might get better over time, but I manage four DNA results including my own and the ethnicity results are never accurate.

Fascists can’t be argued with. They love when you get angry and yell at them. But they absolutely cannot stand to get laughed at. Go look up some quotes from Mel Brooks about why he thought it was important for the Hitler references in The Producers.

We should be doing a monthly nationally televised event where Trump, Musk, and the rest are ridiculed.

Bees.

So less “town hall” and more “klan rally” - got it

Yeah, that’s definitely UM.

Yep, had the same thought

Reminds me of UniversalMonk - the combative tone, the posting patterns. Not necessarily the same person but definitely following the same playbook.

I always liked the idea of a Venn diagram as a metaphor better. The central circle is you and then the autism traits are the circles overlapping with you (and sometimes each other!). How much your autism affects you is related to how much those circles overlap with you in the middle. Probably not perfect either, but I always liked it better than the oft-misunderstood “spectrum” metaphor.

Um…no… this is just gender-swapped RFK Jr (from her Wikipedia page):

A “both-and” approach (both prayer and medicine) to physical and mental health has been attributed to Williamson.[98] Williamson has said, “People who are prayed for get out of the emergency room faster,” and “people who have been diagnosed with a life-challenging illness, who attend spiritual support groups, live, on average, twice as long after diagnosis”.[11][99][100]

Williamson has stated her support for the necessity and value of vaccinations and antidepressants,[101][102] but has been criticized for her skepticism about the pharmaceutical industry’s influence in setting guidelines for how they are administered, citing her belief that their profit motive could result in harm to patients.[103][104][105]

She has also criticized overprescription of antidepressants,[97][106] questioning whether antidepressants play a role in suicide, saying that the prescriptive definition between sadness and clinical depression is “artificial”, and having called the process by which clinical depression is diagnosed “a scam”.[107][102]

I’ve been thinking about this and wondering what happens if he dies from natural causes in office. The GOP infighting would be tremendous and without the cult of personality to hold the administration together, I’m not sure what would happen. Vance doesn’t have what it takes, but with Peter Thiel backing him, it would essentially be a wackadoo billionaire being the power behind the throne.

I’d say yes, but he’s so much of a narcissist and so self-obsessed, I doubt it would’ve occurred to him. Especially as back then he was 90% tech bro and 10% weird idea guy. Those values, of course, have since fully flipped.

I think that’s sort of the point - if 2016 was our last “normal” election and early voting wasn’t prognosticative of election results then, there’s no hope it would be anything other than more variable and chaotic now.

The point wasn’t about a “return to normal” or else he would be saying it was an indicator.

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up. There’s no way to reconcile what he’s saying with the video evidence.

Several citizens were permitted to run “test” ballots through machines assigned to their county, including Savage, who was spotted on camera folding the ballots into his pocket while confirming with an election official that they were “absolutely, totally real ballots.” Although they weren’t official ballots, the ballots did not say “fake” or “sample” and were being tracked and counted by the state.

That would be “ornithological” :)

Weirdly antagonistic tone and not sure when Silver pissed in your Wheaties, but you obviously have a hang up about him. No desire to go tit for tat, other than to say he’s been more reliably accurate over time than anyone else when it comes to politics. It’s like baseball - if you lifetime hit for .300, everyone is going to know your name.

Also, the whole point of the article is that early voting patterns are not indicative of final results. That’s not polling analysis or data modeling, that’s just historical fact. I don’t think Silver is perfect, and he’s got problematic issues, but on this point he’s just pointing out the thing the media ignores because it gives them headlines galore for the last two weeks before the election.

2008

Silver’s final 2008 presidential election forecast accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, missing only the prediction for Indiana.

2010

His 2010 congressional mid-term predictions were not as accurate as those made in 2008, but were still within the reported confidence interval. Silver predicted a Republican pickup of 54 seats in the House of Representatives; the GOP won 63 seats. Of the 37 gubernatorial races, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the winner of 36.[71]

2012

At the conclusion of that day, when Mitt Romney had conceded to Barack Obama, Silver’s model had correctly predicted the winner of every one of the 50 states and the District of Columbia.[79][80] Silver, along with at least three[81] academic-based analysts—Drew Linzer,[82] Simon Jackman,[83] and Josh Putnam[84]—who also aggregated pollsfrom multiple pollsters—thus was not only broadly correct about the election outcome, but also specifically predicted the outcomes for the nine swing states.[85]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver

I’d list others but I doubt you’d read it anyway

He literally talks about that at several points. 2020 is a horrible baseline for looking at anything analytically because it was such an outlier because of COVID. Too many other variables in 2020 for it to be applicable for anything