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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • testfactor@lemmy.worldto196@lemmy.blahaj.zonefafo rule
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    5 days ago

    The most liberal estimate that I could find on how often violent crimes go unreported is 60%. So, to be extra generous let’s say there are 10,000 violent crimes per day. There’s still millions of bathrooms and hundreds of millions of people.

    And, while we’re making a point of it. 80% of violent crimes are committed by men. So bring that 10k back down to 2k for the actual potential sample here.

    You think one out of every 2000 violent crimes committed by women are violent TERFs beating up non-trans people that they thought were trans in public bathrooms? Because that’s what it would have to be to be once a day on average.

    Or, maybe you think my liberal overestimate of unreported violent crime is wrong? What percent do you think goes unreported?

    The odds of this are on par with a set of identical twins being struck by lighting at the same time while on different continents. Impossible? No. Implausible? Very much yes.



  • testfactor@lemmy.worldto196@lemmy.blahaj.zonefafo rule
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    5 days ago

    Of those 8 billion, how many would self describe as “gender critical feminists”? I’m betting that there aren’t a lot in, say, Saudi Arabia. It’s a pretty Anglocentric term.

    And I again refer back to the 3000 total violent crimes a day in the US. We can probably safely assume that the per-capita number is lower on most other countries with “gender critical feminists” as a prominent social group.

    So, if we say there are 3000 violent crimes per 350million people a day, how many of those do you think are a cis woman getting physically beaten up for being mistaken as a trans person?


  • testfactor@lemmy.worldto196@lemmy.blahaj.zonefafo rule
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    5 days ago

    Yeah, but there are a lot fewer people I would describe as “gender critical feminists.” But sure, happy to extend my numbers to cover Europe too if you want. They hold up there too. Unless you think brawls in women’s bathrooms are way more common in France than the good old USofA?


  • testfactor@lemmy.worldto196@lemmy.blahaj.zonefafo rule
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    5 days ago

    “Completely plausible” you say, about an event that’s astronomically unlikely.

    The percentage of people being physically assaulted in bathrooms for being mistakenly identified as trans, while certainly a thing that heppens, isn’t exactly common. Certainly occurring less than once a day. There are millions of restrooms available to the public in some capacity in the US.

    (In case you want to dispute the “once a day” thing, there are about 3000 violent crimes total per day in the US. If you think that non trans people being assaulted for being presumed trans while in a bathroom is one of those 3000 every single day, I’ve got a bridge to sell you.)

    The odds that two people who are both the kind of person to physically assault a presumed trans person in a bathroom both going to the same bathroom, and both mistaking the other as a trans person is comically unlikely.

    Combine that with the fact that it’s the kind of comical situation that appeals to the particular brand of schadenfreude that works so well in online spaces like this, and it doesn’t even begin to tickle your, “hey this might be satire” sensors? I think that says more about your critical thinking skills than it does about the state of the nation.